China Public Education (002607) 2019 Performance Preview Comment: Performance Growth Continues, All Category Layout Effects Continue to Appear


China Public Education (002607) 2019 Performance Preview Comment: Performance Growth Continues, All Category Layout Effects Continue to Appear

I. Overview of the event On January 22, 2020, China Education announced a 19-year performance forecast, which is expected to gradually realize net profit attributable to mothers.

2-18.

200 million, an annual increase of 49% -58%.

  Second, the analysis and judgment of the performance growth rate is slightly faster than expected, the whole category layout to drive the company’s business continued development According to the performance forecast, the company in the fourth quarter of 19 to achieve net profit attributable to the mother.

6-8.

US $ 600 million, an annual increase of 24% -41%; net profit attributable to mothers increased by 49% -58%, and performance grew faster than expected.

This year, through the depth of the entire category and the overall industry layout in the field of vocational training, the company has accelerated the increase in market concentration while promoting the company’s scale effect and growth advantage.

In addition, the company focuses on research and development and management effects, while promoting the increase in the proportion of offline high unit price agreement classes, while promoting the rapid development of online business and promoting the company’s brand effect and platform strength.

The high degree of prosperity in the industry of Kao Gong, Kao Faculty, and Postgraduate Entrance Examination continues. The company’s 20-year performance growth has led to a rebound in the national admissions market, which has driven the entire recruitment market. The teacher training and postgraduate entrance markets that have been cut into have a long-term high prosperity logic.Multi-business development prospects The company’s performance growth next year.

Facing the rebound in the recruitment market brought by a 66% increase in the number of national examination enrollments in 2020, the company took advantage of its own brand advantages and scale effects, adjusted its management thinking in a timely manner, and adopted a combination of online and offline development and a multi-course strategy.Next year’s performance strength foundation.

As the difficulty and demand of decentralized decentralized examinations such as teacher qualifications and admissions increase, the participation rate and unit price of related courses are expected to increase year by year. The company’s own platform and brand advantages will continue to benefit from the prosperity of the aforementioned markets.

At the same time, new categories of business including postgraduate research have grown rapidly.

Facing the continuous increase in the number of college graduates and the grim employment growth rate, the company uses the existing brand influence and platform strength in the vocational education market to penetrate into the adult recruitment and qualification training market with long-term growth logic, which will benefit adult training for a long time.Industry dividends.

  Third, investment recommendations maintain the “recommended” level.

As the recruitment market picks up and the adult economy continues to thrive, the company, as a market leader, strives to achieve brand advantages and reduce dimensionality, achieve cross-track development, and drive 杭州桑拿网 continued growth in performance.

Therefore, we expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 19-21.

28/0.

39/0.

51, corresponding to the current price of PE is 62X / 45X / 35X.

Compared with comparable company Oriental Fashion’s 20-year WindPE, which is 42X, considering the company’s leading position and performance growth rate, we believe that the company’s 20-year estimate has a reasonable premium space.

Therefore, maintain the “recommended” level.

  4. Risk Warning: The annual recruitment policy and number of public positions change, and competition in the industry is intensifying.