Poly Real Estate (600048): High advance receipts support future performance, high-quality soil reserves ensure stable expansion
Main aspects: 1. National residential real estate sales increased rapidly in 2017, while 11.
04 trillion, sales area 14.
4.7 billion square meters, with added value accounting for 6% of GDP.
The residential real estate 南京夜网 industry has a huge market size and a long industrial chain, which affects many industries upstream and downstream, and has a significant impact on the macro economy.
The current market concentration allows the top ten housing companies to try to account for the proportion.
35%, residential property accounts for about 84% of real estate ownership.
2. In recent years, residential sales have caused a certain overdraft of household consumption, and there is a trend of cooling in the short term.
In the medium and long term (2018-2030), there are still about 13.
2 billion square meters of annual average new residential demand.
In the long run (after 2030), as demand weakens and supply channels increase, a turning point in the residential real estate market will emerge.
In the medium and long-term industry development, high-level residential demand can still be maintained, and structural opportunities exist.
3. Poly Real Estate is a large state-owned enterprise actually controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. It ranks fifth in the industry in terms of sales scale and second in the stock real estate industry. It has obvious advantages in financing, and advance accounts can support the scale of 2017 operating income2.
In 17 years, the advance account protection was strong, the land reserve was sufficient and high quality, and the construction area was 1.
6.5 billion square meters, the current reserve value is 64.
2% were concentrated in first- and second-tier cities, 92.
59% is concentrated in 14 national-level urban agglomerations with huge regional potential.
4. In terms of absolute estimation, the company’s RNAV estimation result is 2415.
95 ppm, daily RNAV estimate 20.
32 yuan, reasonable and feasible for RNAV correction15.
28 yuan, the current budget is underestimated.
In terms of relative estimates, the company’s operating income for 2018-2020 is expected to be 1901 respectively.
9.8 billion, 2662.
7.7 billion yuan, 3674.
6.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 30%, 40%, 38%.
Net profit attributable to mother is 204.
5.6 billion yuan, 288.
07 billion, 370.
420,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.
The corresponding EPS is 1.
72 yuan, 2.
42 yuan, 3.
11 yuan, giving the company 8 times PE in 2018, corresponding to 19.
Combining RNAV estimation and PE estimation, the company’s 2018 forecast is finally given as 17.
3.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value of 2059.
690,000 yuan, given a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: Uncertain policy changes are high; property tax deposits are expected to be collected; high land reserves create repayment pressure.