Guangxun Technology (002281): Significant improvement in operating quality is expected to benefit from rising telecom market boom
The company disclosed the interim report and realized operating income of 24.
79 ppm, an increase of ten years.
80%, net profit attributable to mothers1.
44 ppm, a 10-year increase3.
42%, realizing net profit deducted from non-attribution1.
32 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.
Brief Comment 1.
Revenue previously increased slightly, and the growth rate is expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year.
19H1 company achieved revenue of 24.
79 ppm, an increase of ten years.
8%, of which the transmission business income is 16.
41 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
0%, accounting for 66 of total revenue.
19% (previously increased by 6 units), data and access business income was 8.
19 ppm, a ten-year average of 12.
02%, accounting for 33% of total revenue.
04% (previously dropped by 5 integers).
In terms of access and data services, PON production lines have shrunk through the domestic FTTH penetration rate. Upgrading to 10GPON is the trend. GPON / EPON will gradually decline and 10GPON will gradually increase. Expansion and fast growth. It is expected that the construction volume of 5G base stations in 20 years will be more than three times that in 19 years. It is expected to drive the substrate optical module business. Due to the pressure of cloud vendor inventory adjustment in the data communication product line, the inventory adjustment of 19H1 cloud vendors will gradually bottomThe 19H2 datacom market will gradually pick up.
Transmission business lines, passive components, and amplifiers are growing more brightly. The 5G SA base station tender was launched in 19H2. The demand for backhaul optical modules in 5G is gradually increasing. It is expected that the growth of transmission business is expected to accelerate.
In a single quarter, 19Q2 companies achieved revenue of 12.
60 megabytes. Previously, there was a slight increase from the previous quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of 19H2 companies will gradually increase.
The net profit after deducting non-return to mothers increased significantly, and the operating quality improved significantly.
2Q19 company achieved net profit attributable to mother 1.
44 ppm,杭州桑拿网 a 10-year increase3.
42%, net of non-attributed net profit1.
32 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.
24%, deducting non-attribution net profit growth, operating quality improved significantly, mainly due to the improvement in gross profit margin, 19H1 company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 19.
43%, an increase of 2 a year.
5 per second, the gross margin of the transmission business line is 24.
39%, an increase of 1 per year.
3 samples, data and receiving gross margin is 8.
87% (negative gross profit margin PON product line shrinks, the proportion declines), until the increase of 2.
In a single quarter, the company achieved a net profit of 0 in 19Q2.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.
30%, an increase of 25.
12%, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin, the 北京桑拿 company’s gross profit margin in 19Q2 was 20.
98%, up 4 singles previously, up 3 singles from the previous quarter.
In the short-term: the telecom market’s prosperity is gradually increasing, data communications gradually break through, and gross profit margins are picking up.
1) The demand for 5G bearer landed in 19H2, and the prosperity of the telecommunications market gradually increased.
Budget, due to the capital expansion of the three major operators, the domestic telecommunications market demand is flat, supplementary equipment vendors destocking pressure, the H1 telecommunications market demand is sluggish in 2017 and 2018; 2019 is the first year of 5G, and deployment through 5G base stations, especially 5G The SA base station tender was launched in 19H2, which is expected to drive the telecommunications market boom gradually upward.
2) The digital communications market is accelerating, and cloud customers are breaking through.
The growth rate of capital expenditures of cloud vendors in 18H2 has increased, and the data center market has ushered in inventory adjustment. The global data communications market has bottomed out in 19Q1 and is expected to pick up quarter by quarter. In 19, it was the first year of 400G.A new round of upgrade cycles has begun.
The company’s 100G datacom optical modules have achieved breakthroughs in major domestic cloud vendors and Internet companies, and North American cloud vendors have also achieved success. In response to the 400G upgrade, the company has launched 400G optical module prototypes, completed 400G COB platform process capability construction, and 400G multimodeThe product has achieved small batch delivery capabilities. The existing company’s 400G North American large customer certification is expected to narrow the gap with leading manufacturers in the 400G generation.
3) Optimized revenue structure and rebounded gross profit margin.
Since 2016, affected by the low-speed product price war, the company’s gross profit margin is under pressure, and the gross profit margin is expected to pick up: 1) Optimized revenue structure, GPON / EPON upgrade to 10GPON, GPON / EPON shrinking (the industry is at zero gross profit margin)Even lower) Negative gross margin status), 10GPON demand is expected to increase volume; 2) Data communications business volume, the company’s data communications business includes 10G, 40G, 100G products, complete categories, but the business volume is small, the gross profit margin is still relativelyLow level; 3) Improved self-sufficiency of optical chips, 10G DFB, EML full-scale production, 25G DFB, EML is expected to be supplied in batches in 19-20.
Long-term perspective: 5G lights up optical communications, high-speed chip breakthroughs, non-optical steady expansion 1).
The 5G RAN network resets the 4G BBU, and the RRU two-level structure will be redirected to the CU, DU, and AAU three-level structures, resulting in fronthaul, midhaul, and backhaul. High demand for 5G requires high-speed optical ports, access, and convergence.The layer needs 25G / 50G rate interface, and the core layer needs super 100G rate interface. Only 5G fronthaul will require tens of millions of 25G optical modules.
At present, the company has completed 5G fronthaul product verification and large-scale sales in key customers. The 50G PAM4 backhaul products have passed verification to achieve full coverage of 5G fronthaul (radio access layer) and middle backhaul (aggregation layer + core network) optical modules.
2) The national innovation center was launched to accelerate the breakthrough of high-speed chips.
In order to actively respond to the “Made in China 2025” and promote the implementation of the strategy of manufacturing a strong country, the company will lead the establishment of the “National Information Optoelectronics Innovation Center”. The innovation center will focus on silicon photonics, high-speed optical chips and other optoelectronic core technologies to supplement shortcomings; Guangxun as an internal lightChip leader, leading innovation center preparation and operation, silicon light, high-speed chip breakthroughs to accelerate acceleration, the company’s 25G PD is commercialized, 25G DFB, EML has been sampled, and mass production is expected in 19-20.
3) Optical device leader, non-light steadily expanding.
As a leader in optical devices, based on the advantages of optoelectronic capabilities, the company actively expands non-optical businesses such as 3D sensing, high-power fiber lasers, lidar, IoT sensors, and quantum communications.
In terms of 3D sensing, it has been focusing on the development of Vcsel chips for many years. It is the only domestic manufacturer of Vcsel chip commercialization capabilities. At present, 1G Vcsel chips have been delivered in batches. 10G Vcsel has passed the reliability verification and gradually overcome the 940nm Vcsel for 3D sensing.chip.
Earnings forecast and grade: We predict that the company’s net profit for 2019-2020 will be 4, 5 respectively.
400 million, corresponding to 46 and 34 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the buying level, and continue to recommend.
Risk warning: 5G construction fails to meet expectations; chip mass production fails to meet expectations; datacom market expansion fails to meet expectations.