Almaden (002623): Focus on glass deep processing strategy adjustment or reverse the decline


Almaden (002623): Focus on glass deep processing strategy adjustment or reverse the decline

The company focuses on the core technology of anti-reflection film + tempering and lays out three major application scenarios. The company is one of the leading domestic glass deep-processing companies, especially in the fields of anti-reflection film and ultra-thin glass tempering.

Based on its own technical advantages, the company lays out photovoltaic glass, electronic glass and new energy automobile glass.

The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity in 19 years. The company is one of the main promoters of domestic double-glass modules, which helps to benefit from the rebound of the industry’s prosperity and the increase in the penetration rate of double-glass modules.

The company actively develops the application of ultra-thin glass tempering 苏州桑拿网 in display flat glass and light guide glass. At the same time, the technical route of ultra-thin glass coating + tempering is in line with the trend of lightweight new energy vehicles. The company also launched related layouts in the fourth quarter of last year.

We are optimistic about the company’s prospects in three major application scenarios. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2018 will be 0.

50/0.

52/0.

65 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.

The performance of the photovoltaic sector is expected to pick up. The increase in the self-built capacity of shareholders promotes the fundamental transformation of the photovoltaic industry and the recovery of the photovoltaic industry. At the same time, the penetration rate of dual-glass modules is improved, which benefits the company.

The photovoltaic industry was affected by the 531 policy in the second half of last year, and the profitability of photovoltaic glass was affected.

Since the end of last year, the price of photovoltaic glass has rebounded, and the industry as a whole has recovered, and the company’s profitability has led to a corresponding rise.

At the same time, the penetration rate of dual-glass modules has increased, and the company is expected to regain the good momentum of dual-glass modules in the first half of last year, which will further boost the performance of the photovoltaic industry.

The company gradually sells generators to reduce the asset-liability ratio. At the same time, the major shareholders forecast ignition in the fourth quarter of 650t / d photovoltaic glass kiln in Fengyang, Anhui, in order to solve the problem of the company’s original film purchase difficulties and the gross profit margin being squeezed by the upstream original film factory.The company seeks to improve its long-term profitability.

Electronic glass is expected to be heavy, automotive glass is worth looking forward to the contribution of electronic glass to revenue in 19 years to promote promotion, automotive glass benefits from the good prospects of domestic new energy vehicles.

The company’s electronic glass is mainly used in the display glass and light guide plates of televisions. Due to the time-lag effect of entering the OEM, its revenue contribution was limited last year;improve.

In 18 years, the company launched a new energy automotive glass project, which used cold-formed and glued glass processes. The glass production yield, productivity, production time and other indicators have improved. The project is expected to contribute annual profits after the project reaches full capacity.

US $ 600 million; but considering the break in the supply chain of auto OEMs, the project construction progress is also uncertain, and our profit forecast does not consider the impact of automotive glass for the time being.

The strategic adjustment reversed the trend, and for the first time, the company was given an “overweight” rating to adjust its strategy, sell generators to lower interest rates, and major shareholders built their own glass glass furnace capacity to solve the problem of original film supply and the company’s long-term profitability improved.

At the same time, the company’s electronic glass and automotive glass are potential growth points in the future. We estimate that electronic glass is expected to contribute 50 million revenue in 2019 (18 million estimated revenue in 2018). Due to the uncertainty of the construction of automotive glass projects and the expansion of downstream customers, temporarilyDo not consider car glass contributions.

We forecast the company’s EPS for 2018 to be 0.

50/0.

52/0.

65 yuan, refer to comparable company PE35 for 19 years.

05x, the company is a leading company in domestic glass deep processing technology and enjoys a certain estimated premium. We believe that the reasonable estimate for 19 years is 38-40 times, and the corresponding 19-year EPS target price is 19.

76-20.

80 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: the progress of the construction of photovoltaic glass kiln, the product yield rate is less than expected; the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity in overseas markets is less than expected, the domestic photovoltaic compensation policy is less than expected; the advancement of automotive glass projects is less than expected.