Zhejiang Dingli (603338): record high performance and leading industry layout
Annual report 4.
800 million net profit hit a new high, but is it lower than expected?
Annual report of the company 18: 1) Consolidated statement: Consolidated total income 17.
100 million (+ 50%), net profit attributable to mother 4.
8 percent (+ 70%), gross margin 41.
5%, net interest rate 28.
1%; Q4 income 3.
800 million (+ 40%), net profit attributable to mother 0.
844 ppm (+ 52%), gross margin 44.
5%, net interest rate 22.
1%; 2) Parent company: Revenue 17.
400 million (+ 57%), net profit is 4.
7.1 billion (+ 72%).
The net profit in the January 18 performance report was 500 million yuan, with zero.
The difference is 2 trillion, but we don’t think it exceeds expectations.
First of all, the profit of CMEC in the first half of the year was 4.18 million US dollars, which can be cut to $ 12.85 million. This investment income has exceeded 2,205 million. If you follow the CMEC semi-annual results and make a preliminary calculation, you can make about 6.88 million to 8.36 million dollars.In the second half of the year, the statement reached approximately USD 2,000 to USD 21 million.
Considering that CMEC’s main business was custom non-standard equipment, usually with a high gross profit margin, and engaged in research and development expenses, it is likely that it will be carried out as an expense treatment.
In addition, by comparing the income of the CMEC in the first half of the year and the content of related transactions with Dingli, although the CMEC’s operating income in the second half of the year was lower than that in the first half, the purchase amount of related parties with Dingli increased by 34%.
It can be concluded from this that CMEC’s key business in the future will be a strong distributor, and the proportion of R & D investment will gradually increase, and financial risks in this regard 深圳桑拿网 will be transformed.
It should be noted that the per capita income CAGR11 between 2011 and 2018.
4%, CAGR20 per capita profit.
8%, in “20180719 In-depth Study: In the face of fierce competition and trade frictions, what aspects of Zhejiang Dingli can give you confidence?
We have made it clear that economies of scale and automation will increase productivity, as well as future and continuous improvements.
The Chinese and American markets will remain the focus of the future, and the global market and product line layout will be one step ahead of the company’s domestic sales for 18 years7.
16 billion (+84.
2%), accounting for 43% of main income.
6% (17 years 35.
4%), gross profit margin of 43%, 18 years of sales under the background of increased production capacity is mainly guaranteed to the domestic 返回码: 404 网站打不开?重查 market.
Export income 9.
25 billion (+ 30%), accounting for 56.
4%, gross margin 38% (-2.
7pct), it is expected that the rapid appreciation of the RMB in the first half of the year will have a huge impact, and the gross profit margin of Q1 may be as low as 35% or less and return to about 40% in the second half of the year.
Consider the mast platform 1.
Most of the 500 million income is exported to the United States, and the total purchases of related parties CMEC + Harris5.
400 million (3.
85 + 1.
3.7 billion), it is expected that the US market will account for up to 70% of exports in 18 years, about 6.
50,000 yuan, which is very close to the domestic sales scale.The European market layout has also made progress: Dingli Machinery UK Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the UK in 18 years, is used to explore the British market; the company’s official website news, this year’s BMW exhibition in Germany won 1,000 orders from the major Dutch leasers.(18-year average price is about 6 million per unit). The order is calculated to be nearly 60 million yuan.
Based on the 18-year product sales structure, the scissor fork 12.
8 billion (+ 50%), 2.
20,000 units (+ 70%), which is related to the new capacity allocation in the second half of the year, which also indicates that the increase in the proportion of small models of forks and forks has led to a decrease in average price;The product structure has not changed much, and the supply capacity has increased rapidly.
At the same time, the boom truck became the second largest product line after surpassing the mast. From 17 to 18 years, the small-model shears quickly increased the volume. In 19, the off-road shears tried to increase the volume.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: The company’s product performance, brand advantage and scale advantage are clearly superior to those of its peers, and its technological advantages are constantly changing into brand advantages and scale advantages. Therefore, the company has proven its capabilities for many years in terms of industry and market / customer development capabilities.
However, under the background of the booming market in China and the United States, there are still risks such as exchange rate changes and conversions, and even more investment returns from subsidiaries. At the same time, the time when new investment projects are put into production is expected to affect the supply capacity in the first half of 2020.
Therefore, based on the principle of prudence, we lowered our 19-year investment income and exchange loss gains and benefits expectations, and slightly lowered the 20-year quantitative index to adjust the net profit from 19 to 21 to 7.
3.4 billion (previous value was 7.
4.1 billion), 9.
7.6 billion (previous value was 10.
5.6 billion) and 13.
300 million, EPS is 2.
94 and 5.
37 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the decline of the US economy leads to a decrease in export demand; the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions leads to an increase in tariffs, which affects the growth of export revenue; a decline in the domestic economic boom leads to a decrease in demand; the increase in raw material prices or exchange rate changes affects profitability; the release of new capacity exceeds the expected impactFuture performance growth.