China Shenhua (601088): Accelerated cash value shows no fear of coal price fluctuations


China Shenhua (601088): Accelerated cash value shows no fear of coal price fluctuations

This report reads: It is estimated that the gross profit interruption of “transportation of coal and electricity” in the first half of the year was only downgraded by 1.9 billion, and was basically hedged by the downward financial costs, the cost per ton of coal was down, the electricity assets in the table were superior, and the quiet change in the blockage of the railway transportation sector has been achievedRaise the safety pad.

Investment points: Maintain profit forecast and target price, and maintain “overweight” rating.

Revenue for the first half of the year was 1163.

7 trillion, a reduction of 8 a year.

6%, net profit attributable to mother 242.

400 million, a five-year growth of 5.

5%, deducting non-attributed net profit 226.

800 million, down 1 year.

5%, performance is in line with expectations.

Maintaining the company 2019?
EPS 2 in 2021.

27, 2.

44、2.

47 yuan, maintaining 24.

Target price of 78 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.

Interim report highlight one: The value of cash that cannot be ignored has accelerated.

The scale of monetary funds reached a record high of 128.3 billion since listing, and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities fell 52.5 billion US dollars from the end of the first quarter. Financial expenses in the first half of the year9.

99 ppm, a decrease of 8 from the same period last year.

49 ppm / 45.

9%, total wealth management income (included in investment income / fair value gains and losses) 5.

10,000 yuan.

Interim report highlight two: The cost of tons of coal has dropped in stages, and we are not afraid of further verification of coal price fluctuations.

Coal production and sales in the first half of 145.

4/217.

1 million tons remained stable and the cost of producing self-produced coal was 110.

9 yuan / ton down 2 each time.

2%; the average coal sales price in the first half of the year was 420 yuan / ton downgraded in half a year.

8%, 9 lower than the average price of port thermal coal (Q5500).

1% reduction; annual sales of Long-term Association accounted for 49.

8% reached a new high.

Interim report highlight three: 西安耍耍网 The assets in the power meter are of high quality, and the losers are quietly exerting force.

1) Power generation revenue of $ 26.2 billion is downgraded by 35 per quarter.

7%, the decrease is smaller than the change in installed power (58769MW → 31029MW, a decrease of 47.

2%), the average price of electricity sales is 363 yuan / MWh over eleven.

6%.

2) Gross profit in the first half of the external transportation segment23.

900 million, the unit gross profit is 0.

15 yuan / ton-kilometre hit a record high. Since 2012, sales have been stable but turnover has increased. It is estimated that over the past 6 years, 16.2 billion yuan of gross profit margin has been raised.
Looking at China Shenhua from the perspective of integrated operations.
The external part of transportation has increased, the stability of the external part of coal-fired chemical transportation is strong, and the increase in profits brought by cash attributes has offset the downward impact of coal prices.

risk warning.

The release of production capacity did not meet expectations; the scale of capital expenditures expanded; the dividends of subsidiaries did not meet expectations.